US International Master’s Enrolments Set to Fall 15% in 2025–26 Amid Visa and Work Uncertainty

International enrolments in US master’s programmes are projected to drop by 15% in the 2025–26 academic year, driven largely by visa uncertainty and weakening post-study work prospects, according to a new report by a higher education research firm. The decline translates to around 64,000 fewer international master’s students than previously expected—marking a sharp reversal after years in which international students sustained growth in US graduate education.

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Why Are International Students Turning Away from the US?

According to the report, immigration uncertainty is the single biggest factor behind the projected decline.

Key deterrents include:

• Overhaul of the H-1B visa process, favouring higher-paid roles
• Anticipated tightening or rollback of Optional Practical Training (OPT)
• Longer processing times and unpredictability in post-study outcomes

A Sharp Reversal After Years of Growth

The projected decline comes after five years in which international students propped up US master’s enrolments.

Enrolment Trends (2018–19 to 2023–24)

• Domestic master’s enrolments: 0.5% (Decline)
• International master’s enrolments: 6% (Increase)
• Overall growth: 0.4% (Increase)

Since 2021 alone, international master’s enrolments had risen by over 11%, making the current downturn especially significant for universities planning long-term capacity and revenue.

STEM Programmes Face the Biggest Impact

The report warns that the decline will not be evenly distributed.

International Student Dependence by Field

• Software Engineering: ~80% international students
• Computer Science: ~77% international students
• AI, Data Science, Cybersecurity: heavily international-dependent

By contrast:

• Education and healthcare programmes have the lowest share of international students

If the trend continues, the report warns of:

• Course closures in STEM and MBA programmes
• Reduced intake sizes
• Financial stress for departments reliant on international fees

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Early Warning Signs Already Visible

Multiple data sources point to the downturn accelerating:

• NAFSA: New international master’s enrolments fell 19% year-on-year in Fall 2025
• Studyportals: Interest in US study dropped 50% between Jan–Apr 2025
• IIE: 42% of US institutions reported fewer international graduate applications last year

Nearly half of US universities now expect international graduate applications to decline further this year.

What This Means for Innovation and the US Economy?

Validated Insights warns the consequences extend far beyond campuses.

Potential Long-Term Effects

Loss of early-career talent in:

• Computer Science
• AI
• Data Science
• Engineering
• Cybersecurity

Increased hiring bottlenecks for US employers

Slower innovation in emerging technologies

Firms expanding R&D in countries with clearer post-study work rules

How H-1B and OPT Changes Are Shaping Student Decisions?

Survey data from NAFSA highlights how central post-study work is to international student choices:

• 53% said they would not have enrolled if H-1B selection depended on wage levels
• 54% would not have enrolled if OPT were removed
• 57% of master’s students planning to stay in the US said they would reconsider if OPT ended

For many students, the F-1 → OPT → H-1B pathway is no longer seen as reliable.

What This Means for Indian Students?

Indian students—who form one of the largest international cohorts in US STEM master’s programmes—are among the most affected.

US master’s degrees still offer academic strength

But visa and work outcomes are now less predictable

ROI calculations increasingly favour:

• Canada
• UK
• Ireland
• Germany
• Australia

Students are prioritising certainty over prestige.

The projected 15% drop in international master’s enrolments signals a structural shift, not a temporary dip. Unless immigration clarity improves, the US risks losing its edge in global graduate education, innovation, and talent attraction—especially in STEM fields where international students have long filled critical gaps.

For Indian students, the message is clear: Evaluate post-study work pathways as carefully as the degree itself.